Goodwood – Day 2

With a lot depending on the ground and ever-changing conditions tomorrow is another day of limited investment.

1:50: With only one runner proven over CD and very little in the form of stats or trends to go on it is not a race I will be getting too involved in but the Richard Hughes runner Great Sound may be worth a small interest now 3lbs lower than his very cosy win over 13½ furlongs back in August 2017 when trained by J Gosden. He is having only his fourth run for the yard and only his second run after wind surgery, 33/1 looks a decent price.

2:25: Infrastructure should go well and could follow-up his latest win. He had earlier finished behind Corgi but that race was not run to suit and with Baileys Excelerate likely to take them forward he should get a better gallop to aim at here. Lynwood Gale is a lively outsider under Joe Fanning who has a 22.22% strike rate here in these type of races for M Johnston.

3:00: On My Ratings I have this very close between Street Parade and Soldier’s Call. It is difficult to know what to make of the form, the form of Soldier’s Call has a more solid look to it with the most recent win at Listed level and he has already beaten a few of today’s rivals. Street Parades form may not be as strong class wise but he has won his last two races by over 10 lengths and that form has since been boosted. Street Parade may be the one to go with at the odds but my play will be a reverse forecast.

3:35 Goodwood 1m Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

It generally pays to follow the younger generation in this race, with seven of the last ten winners being three-year olds, with four of those sired by Galileo including Frankel who won this race twice and he now sires the favourite Without Parole. Good recent form is a must with twenty of the last twenty-one winners either winning (13) or finishing second (7) on their latest start. The market is not always the best guide to finding the winner with last years winner returning at 20/1. We can discount several of the runners on the above trends, namely So Beloved (age/form), Lightning Spear (age/form), Lord Glitters (age) and begrudgingly Gustav Klimt (form). Without Parole finished ½ length in front of Gustav Klimt at Royal Ascot. Beat The Bank has yet to prove himself at this level with the same comment applying to Expert Eye although both are proven at the track only Beat The Bank has won over Course and Distance. The French raider, Orbaan is very unexposed, having only his fourth start. He won a Listed Event last time out and is now two from two for Silvestre De Sousa and may be over-priced at 33/1 with negatives about the majority of the field but it is a rather boring that I go with Without Parole who I have well clear on ratings and is proven at this level. I have played Gustav Klimt in the forecast and I will play Orbaan in the place market.

4:45: Four White Socks should appreciate the return to turf and Handicap Company after contesting a Group 3 on the AW most recently. I have a sneaky suspicion that Musical Art is better than she has shown and the sire’s three-year olds have a 21% strike rate at the track and are 3 from 8 over CD.

5:55: I will take a chance with last year’s comfortable winner Truth Or Dare who won off a 2lbs higher mark when looked campaigned for that race and the same applies here.

6:20 Sandown: I have Free Love penciled in here but I will wait until after Street Parade has run before committing fully.

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Goodwood – Day 1

Goodwood Selections:

  1. Tuff Rock
  2. Van Beethoven/Blonde Warrior
  3. So Beloved
  4. STRADIVARIUS with Call To Mind for the forecast
  5. El Astronaute
  6. Move Swiftly

Beverley Yankee:

horse_name time track
Signore Piccolo 15:50:00 Beverley
Alejandro (IRE) 16:20:00 Beverley
Breathable 17:30:00 Beverley
Bollin Joan 18:00:00 Beverley

Sunday

Nothing really today bar a couple of tracker runners

I backed Duggary at 8/1 but not sure I could advice at current prices and I am tempted to trade out if going much shorter.

Aljazzi won like a good horse at Royal Ascot with that form well and truly boosted by the fourth placed runner winning a decent Group 1 at The Curragh next time out.

Back at Wolverhampton I thought Spiced may be worth a small interest at 20/1 for a trainer with a 30% strike rate at the track in non-handicaps and a sire whose three-year old progeny tend to go well on a Tapeta surface with 23.73% strike rate. The trainer runs two here but the draw and sire stats for his other runner both look a negative. I don’t like backing Maidens on their third run as this qualifies them for handicaps. Again I could not recommend strongly that you follow I am merely advising on my plays.

Saturday’s Interests

I won’t be getting too involved today but below are the two bets I have had.

5:20 Ascot – Star Of Southwold  had to be worth a small each way at 20/1 providing the 8 left in all run. Silvester De Sousa has an outstanding record on three-year olds in three-year old plus handicaps for Mr Hannon over the last two years.

5:35 York – Artair produced one of my top two year old ratings when winning on soft ground back in May, a couple of lesser efforts since have been on faster ground and the form of his last race looks solid with the second placed runner that day who was making his debut going on to win his next two, the latest by over 8 lengths and is now rated 96. 17/2 I thought a very fair price for a trainer who generally operates at a 26.2% strike rate in Nurseries in July and hopefully the ground will stay soft. Que Amoro looks the danger if handling the soft ground.

FRIDAY – EARLY PLAYS

6:30 YORK

CLASS WINNERS :B Fifty Two, Ninjago, Huntsmans Close and Toofi have the back class, Pennsylvania Dutch Run 7 Won 2 Placed 5 Win 29% Win/Place 71% at Class 4 level.

HIGHEST LTO PF :Dirchill (IRE)

SPEED TREND 1 :Hee Haw (IRE)

RATING :Tylery Wonder (IRE)

SPEED 1 :Meshardal (GER)

PACE VERDICT :It should suit a runner racing close to the speed Although some of these have shown Early Speed in the past none are guaranteed to go forward

PACE CONTENDERS :Dirchill and Round The Island have shown recent early speed.

RACE SUMMARY :A massively competitive race with several well handicapped runners, most notable are Huntsman Close 19lbs, Pomme De Terre 9lbs, Hee Haw and Meshardal both on 7lbs below their last winning mark. Pomme De Terre and Meshardal are the only two Course/Distance winners in the field whilst Tylery Wonder (5lbs below) has won at the track and over the trip but not combined. We have to go all the way back to 2015 for Huntsman’s Close last win but that was off a mark of 98 in a 0-108 Handicap. He is having only his fourth run for this yard and his last run looked no more than a freshener when set forward to lead. All four of his victories have been over a straight 6 furlongs, twice on good to firm ground although none of the here. Trainer D Griffiths has a decent 19.5% strike rate with his handicappers that he sends here and is 1 from 1 with those having their fourth run. Pomme De Terre could be in better form but he should appreciate the return to this track having only run here twice both times over CD, winning once off a 9lbs higher mark and finishing second off 10lbs higher. P Midgely runs four here with three of them very well handicapped and looking to hold a very strong chance, Tylery Wonder may be better over shorter but would be dangerous if afforded a comfortable time on the lead and P Makin has the best strike rate of the the four Jockeys riding for this yard but combined they only operate at a 4% strike rate with his runners here. Hee Haw arguably has the most scope for improvement and also has produced the best recent figures of the four and would appreciate any give in the ground. In such a competitive race I have split my stakes between high and low draws

SELECTION :Huntsman’s Close needs a leap of faith but if returning to anywhere near his best form for a Trainer who is a dab hand with these types of horses he has to be in with a shout at 50/1.

DANGER :Pomme De Terre with a watching eye on the weather towards Hee Haw


2:00 THIRSK

I have a tracker horse running here and one which I believe possesses a decent chance. Sosume run with great credit on his debut considering he was slowly away but showed a decent turn of foot staying on well at the end. K Burke’s juvenile runners tend to improve greatly for a run with his second time out juveniles generally operating at a 21.87% strike rate, 18.75% at this track. Today’s jockey Clifford Lee has an impressive 29.4% strike rate when riding the stables second time out juveniles. On my ratings the K Ryan runner Baldwin just shades it and as with K Burke the trainers juveniles generally progress with experience and his runners having their third start show a very healthy strike rate of 17.52% returning a level stakes profit of £47.45 in the last five years and are 3 from 12 at this track. More importantly to me is the fact that when going head to head with a single representative having between 1 and 2 starts K Ryan has won 6 of the 27 match ups compared to K Burke who has won 3. Both runners hold Group 2 Gymcrack entries and I believe Sosume to be a better prospect over further out of a Group 2 winning mare over 8 furlongs although his sire was speedy juvenile himself winning over 5 furlongs on debut but did go on win a Group 1 over 7 furlongs. Baldwin is by a Group 2 winning sire over 6 furlongs who also won his debut over 5 furlongs but his dam was only moderate. With the draw and run style massively in his favour Baldwin just edges for me but I will play Sosume in a forecast.

SELECTION :Baldwin just edges it for me at the prices

DANGER :Sosume would not need to improve much to take this

6:40 NEWMARKET

I have gone for one that I feel is hugely over-priced and is also My Top Rated. Dombra faced a difficult task last time out in a fiercely competitive Maiden with the first four places filled by runners from C Appleby by Dubawi costing 300,000 guineas, Saeed Bin Suroor by Dubawi, A P O’Brien by Scat Daddy costing $750,000 and John Gosden by Dutch Art. Dombra himself is by the mighty Frankel whose juvenile progeny are 2 from 2 in Nurseries so far and out of a Group 3 winning mare over 8 furlongs. Since 2014 Hugo Palmer has shown a decent 37.5% strike rate in Nurseries during the month of July and with the very impressive Jason Watson taking off a valuable 5lbs I am hoping Dombra can finally show his potential. Even Keel has decent form and will prefer this track but a string of seconds suggests connections have been trying and J Portman is 0 from 26 in Nurseries. Red Hut Red finished ½ length second last time out to a now 93 rated runner who had earlier finished second behind the impressive Calyx. Red Hut Red is trained by W Haggas who saddled 5 Nursery winners from 15 runners last year  all of which were from July onwards.

SELECTION :Dombra at 10/1edges it for me at the prices

DANGER : Red Hut Red at 22/1 could be worth an each way saver

Doncaster Friday

5:15 Point Of Woods won here last week over 5 furlongs in a 0-70 Apprentice Handicap on his first run back after wind surgery.

  • He is running off the same official rating today due to that being an Apprentice race.
  • He runs in the same 0-70 Class
  • Officially carrying 3lbs less due to the conditions of the race but theoretically is carrying 8lbs less due to the fact Sophie Ralston could only claim 3lbs last time but is entitled to her full 7lbs today.
  • He beat Muatadel a shade cosily just over 1 length last time when in receipt of only 1lb (taking in to account jockeys claims) and receives 10lbs today.
  • He has winning form on the back of a similar fast turn around.
  • Versatile ground wise
  • Won over 6 furlongs
  • 2 out of 2 for this Jockey

The only negative I can find is that he has never strung together back to back wins