Saturday’s Interests

I won’t be getting too involved today but below are the two bets I have had.

5:20 Ascot – Star Of Southwold  had to be worth a small each way at 20/1 providing the 8 left in all run. Silvester De Sousa has an outstanding record on three-year olds in three-year old plus handicaps for Mr Hannon over the last two years.

5:35 York – Artair produced one of my top two year old ratings when winning on soft ground back in May, a couple of lesser efforts since have been on faster ground and the form of his last race looks solid with the second placed runner that day who was making his debut going on to win his next two, the latest by over 8 lengths and is now rated 96. 17/2 I thought a very fair price for a trainer who generally operates at a 26.2% strike rate in Nurseries in July and hopefully the ground will stay soft. Que Amoro looks the danger if handling the soft ground.

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FRIDAY – EARLY PLAYS

6:30 YORK

CLASS WINNERS :B Fifty Two, Ninjago, Huntsmans Close and Toofi have the back class, Pennsylvania Dutch Run 7 Won 2 Placed 5 Win 29% Win/Place 71% at Class 4 level.

HIGHEST LTO PF :Dirchill (IRE)

SPEED TREND 1 :Hee Haw (IRE)

RATING :Tylery Wonder (IRE)

SPEED 1 :Meshardal (GER)

PACE VERDICT :It should suit a runner racing close to the speed Although some of these have shown Early Speed in the past none are guaranteed to go forward

PACE CONTENDERS :Dirchill and Round The Island have shown recent early speed.

RACE SUMMARY :A massively competitive race with several well handicapped runners, most notable are Huntsman Close 19lbs, Pomme De Terre 9lbs, Hee Haw and Meshardal both on 7lbs below their last winning mark. Pomme De Terre and Meshardal are the only two Course/Distance winners in the field whilst Tylery Wonder (5lbs below) has won at the track and over the trip but not combined. We have to go all the way back to 2015 for Huntsman’s Close last win but that was off a mark of 98 in a 0-108 Handicap. He is having only his fourth run for this yard and his last run looked no more than a freshener when set forward to lead. All four of his victories have been over a straight 6 furlongs, twice on good to firm ground although none of the here. Trainer D Griffiths has a decent 19.5% strike rate with his handicappers that he sends here and is 1 from 1 with those having their fourth run. Pomme De Terre could be in better form but he should appreciate the return to this track having only run here twice both times over CD, winning once off a 9lbs higher mark and finishing second off 10lbs higher. P Midgely runs four here with three of them very well handicapped and looking to hold a very strong chance, Tylery Wonder may be better over shorter but would be dangerous if afforded a comfortable time on the lead and P Makin has the best strike rate of the the four Jockeys riding for this yard but combined they only operate at a 4% strike rate with his runners here. Hee Haw arguably has the most scope for improvement and also has produced the best recent figures of the four and would appreciate any give in the ground. In such a competitive race I have split my stakes between high and low draws

SELECTION :Huntsman’s Close needs a leap of faith but if returning to anywhere near his best form for a Trainer who is a dab hand with these types of horses he has to be in with a shout at 50/1.

DANGER :Pomme De Terre with a watching eye on the weather towards Hee Haw


2:00 THIRSK

I have a tracker horse running here and one which I believe possesses a decent chance. Sosume run with great credit on his debut considering he was slowly away but showed a decent turn of foot staying on well at the end. K Burke’s juvenile runners tend to improve greatly for a run with his second time out juveniles generally operating at a 21.87% strike rate, 18.75% at this track. Today’s jockey Clifford Lee has an impressive 29.4% strike rate when riding the stables second time out juveniles. On my ratings the K Ryan runner Baldwin just shades it and as with K Burke the trainers juveniles generally progress with experience and his runners having their third start show a very healthy strike rate of 17.52% returning a level stakes profit of £47.45 in the last five years and are 3 from 12 at this track. More importantly to me is the fact that when going head to head with a single representative having between 1 and 2 starts K Ryan has won 6 of the 27 match ups compared to K Burke who has won 3. Both runners hold Group 2 Gymcrack entries and I believe Sosume to be a better prospect over further out of a Group 2 winning mare over 8 furlongs although his sire was speedy juvenile himself winning over 5 furlongs on debut but did go on win a Group 1 over 7 furlongs. Baldwin is by a Group 2 winning sire over 6 furlongs who also won his debut over 5 furlongs but his dam was only moderate. With the draw and run style massively in his favour Baldwin just edges for me but I will play Sosume in a forecast.

SELECTION :Baldwin just edges it for me at the prices

DANGER :Sosume would not need to improve much to take this

6:40 NEWMARKET

I have gone for one that I feel is hugely over-priced and is also My Top Rated. Dombra faced a difficult task last time out in a fiercely competitive Maiden with the first four places filled by runners from C Appleby by Dubawi costing 300,000 guineas, Saeed Bin Suroor by Dubawi, A P O’Brien by Scat Daddy costing $750,000 and John Gosden by Dutch Art. Dombra himself is by the mighty Frankel whose juvenile progeny are 2 from 2 in Nurseries so far and out of a Group 3 winning mare over 8 furlongs. Since 2014 Hugo Palmer has shown a decent 37.5% strike rate in Nurseries during the month of July and with the very impressive Jason Watson taking off a valuable 5lbs I am hoping Dombra can finally show his potential. Even Keel has decent form and will prefer this track but a string of seconds suggests connections have been trying and J Portman is 0 from 26 in Nurseries. Red Hut Red finished ½ length second last time out to a now 93 rated runner who had earlier finished second behind the impressive Calyx. Red Hut Red is trained by W Haggas who saddled 5 Nursery winners from 15 runners last year  all of which were from July onwards.

SELECTION :Dombra at 10/1edges it for me at the prices

DANGER : Red Hut Red at 22/1 could be worth an each way saver

Doncaster Friday

5:15 Point Of Woods won here last week over 5 furlongs in a 0-70 Apprentice Handicap on his first run back after wind surgery.

  • He is running off the same official rating today due to that being an Apprentice race.
  • He runs in the same 0-70 Class
  • Officially carrying 3lbs less due to the conditions of the race but theoretically is carrying 8lbs less due to the fact Sophie Ralston could only claim 3lbs last time but is entitled to her full 7lbs today.
  • He beat Muatadel a shade cosily just over 1 length last time when in receipt of only 1lb (taking in to account jockeys claims) and receives 10lbs today.
  • He has winning form on the back of a similar fast turn around.
  • Versatile ground wise
  • Won over 6 furlongs
  • 2 out of 2 for this Jockey

The only negative I can find is that he has never strung together back to back wins

Friday’s Nursery

You can’t beat a good Nursery in my opinion as they are not only about what a horse has done in the past or even what a horse may do in in the future but you have to factor in what the horse could of done.

2:20 Nottingham

MAIN CONTENDERS:

  • owner details Awake In Asia – A gelding by Dragon Pulse out of a moderate 5-5½ furlong winning mare looks bred for speed. He did too much early last time out when trying to overcome a poor draw at Chester in a strong looking Class 2 Maiden and his form before that looks rock solid finishing just over 4 lengths behind 102 rated Marie’s Diamond who went on to be beaten only ½ length by Van Beethoven in a Curragh Group 2 that was tactically run with a stable-mate of the winner taking her on for the lead. This step up in trip should suit Awake In Asia who I believe may be ridden slightly more patiently today and the yard are 1 from 2 in Nurseries so far this year.
  • Horse Profile - Jockey Colours Don Armado – A Camacho colt out of a speedy fibresand specialist mare is My Top rated. Already showing a liking for this trip with a decent second on his penultimate start.
  • Horse Profile - Jockey Colours Improvising – Is the intriguing runner in the field, a filly by Showcasing out of an interesting juvenile winning mare. The yard have a decent record in Nurseries operating at a 13.65% strike rate and just over 16% with their fillies. She is My Today Top Rated runner in the field and her run on her penultimate start behind Kodyanna who has won twice since and now  88 rated reads really well in the context of this race.
  • Horse Profile - Jockey Colours Spirit Kingdom – A filly by Group 1 winning sire Animal Kingdom out of a versatile mare. I think the market had this filly wrong and personally I think she will be a better AW runner and this quick straight 6 furlongs may all be too much for her. She looks the obvious leader and should take them a long for a fair way but I would be surprised if there is not something to come from off the speed to beat her.

CONCLUSION:

I expect this to be a tough race run at a decent gallop with Spirit Kingdom and Dancing Speed most likely to take them forward. I may be wrong about Awake In Asia but I expect him to be ridden with more restraint today so along with Don-Armado and Improvising who I expect to be ridden just off the speed and take it up in the final strides. I really can not split the three, Awake In Asia has the strongest form but does not have the figures to back that form up which with juveniles I find important. If forced to split the other two Improvising just edges it so I will play a reverse forecast on the two and a tri-fecta with all three.

 

 

Wolverhampton Fancies

Another very tough days racing but I do quite like two this evening at Wolverhampton.

5:20 WOLVES

*A massive word of warning if following, this race has all the makings of a pre-arranged so although I have had a small bet on my selection I will not play again if anything in the race attracts significant support*

VERDICT : Charleston Belle, De Little Engine and Mr Andros look the obvious early speed runners so a decent gallop looks likely which may suit a runner coming from off the speed.
RACE SUMMARY : A very tough handicap with two last time out winners, Charleston Belle won here over 6 furlongs when finally allowed to lead and De Little Engine who won over CD when racing prominently throughout and take it up 2 furlongs out. The lattershould be able to sit handily enough with closers on his inner with a lotdepending on how Charleston Belle is ridden He made all last time out over 6 furlongs here showing by far the best early speed figure. Three time CD winner Athasselis very well handicapped on a mark some 20lbs lower mark than for his last win and does look to have been targeted atthis with his three previous runs over 8, 9½ and 8½ furlongsn two of which were in claimers have see him dropped 10lbs. S Donohoe who has a great record on the horse takes over in the saddle, 2 from 2 over CD and 3 from 4 at the track but he will have to be at his best from stall 1 although Athassel has comfortably the best final pace figure so the faster they go the better he is also comfortably clear on Average and Maximum CD Speed so may be worth risking at 12/1.
SELECTION : Athassel
DANGER : Charleston Belle looks open to further improvement


8:00 WOLVES

RACE SUMMARY : I find myself in a very difficult situation as I quite like a Richard Hughes runner ridden by Shane Kelly. R Hughes has a 50% (3 from 6) strike rate with his three-year old runners stepping up to this trip in all age handicaps. Acquirer is a runner
I have been waiting to be handicapped on the AW since running well over 14 furlongs at Bath, his last two runs can be forgiven as he was unable to get involved last time out and should never have run the time before when breaking through the stalls. Hopefully the first time cheek pieces and drop in Class will see him finally get his head in front.


9:05 WOLVES

RACE SUMMARY : I have had a very small interest here on Honourbound who I really believe will be better than a 60 rated runner at some point if not today. He has a decent looking pedigree especially in the context of this race by a Group 1 winning sire over 8 furlongs. This step up in trip should suit as the sire’s progeny have a 19% strike rate over over this sort of trip here. Stable form has to be a worry but Hayley Turner has a 15.79% strike rate when riding on the AW for this yard and is 2 from 6 with their runners stepping up in trip for the first time. This is purely an interest bet so I can watch the race but Honourbound is a runner I will be following on his next couple of runs.