Two very tricky cards today and a day I won’t be getting too involved.
2:20 Southwell – Equidae was well fancied last time out and connections will no doubt be trying to recoup their losses but he did look extremely one paced here over 8 furlongs and I don’t think 7 furlongs is his trip. The one I have taken a chance with based mainly on stats is the David Simcock trained Al Thoorayah who on pedigree should be suited by the surface being by Arch who has sired a couple of “fibresand specialists” and his trainer has a 29.73% strike rate with his runners making their fibresand debut with these winners providing 79% (11) of his 14 winners at the track.
6:00 Chelmsford – This looks a very tight race that I could only narrow down to 6 runners. Venture is still a lightly raced 4yo who won a novice stakes over this trip at Kempton, drops back down in Class on course debut and has some decent figures to be competitive, Nick Vedder, is My Top Speed Rated and very well handicapped now 14lbs below his last winning mark but all of his AW wins have been at Newcastle and when well found in the market, Fen Breeze is a CD winner who possibly brings the strongest form in the race and interesting returned to CD with her winning form being boosted well, Swiss Pride, reads well on my recent ratings, CD second reads well in the context of this race with the 1st, 3rd and 5th all winning since, Excellent George is a three times CD winner all off much higher marks, latest CD second off 7lbs higher doesn’t read well and 16lbs worse off with Nick Vedder but dangerous with this possibly his time of year and Suzis Connoisseur is very well handicapped on some old form. My main worry for the race is the likely lack of speed with no confirmed front runners with Lalania and Fen Breeze the most likely to go forward with Excellent George possibly the best suited.
I am giving Lingfield a swerve going forward as I feel there is far too much skulduggery at the track.
5:30 Kempton – I have this between 3 runners, Ubla was an easy CD winner in January off 3lbs lower in a slightly easier race but the form has been boosted several times, Kyllachy Dragon has 1 win from 13 AW runs which is hardly inspiring but is clearly My Top rated and that win was off a 12lbs higher mark over this CD under today’s jockey but I am slightly worried by the quick return. The one I feel could be over-priced at 16/1 is Derry Boy who is having his second run since after wind surgery. He had earlier finished a nose second in CD Novice Stakes from which the winner has won since and although recent CD runs are uninspiring I feel the market may be worth watching in first time cheek-pieces into 0-60.
6:00 Kempton – It is tough to see where the pace is going to come from here. Penarth Pier, Fly The Nest and Recuerdame have all led but not guaranteed front runners. Kodiline has a poor record at the track albeit off much higher marks than this and does have the figures to be competitive, Penarth Pier a CD winner off 6lbs higher, was well backed lto over CD before being hampered and losing her chance. She does have the speed figures to win this but may be slightly high in the weights, Treble Clef is the one that interests me most andat 10/1 looked a little over-priced. He is definitely worth watching in the market on Handicap debut as he finished behind a short priced favourite lto when trapped wide from a poor draw and considerably ridden throughout surely better than 60 rated, Fly The Nest was interestingly ridden over CD on penultimate start. Was rated 82 around this time last year now 22lbs lower and Ben Curtis booked who is 6 from 16 for this yard with all winners well found in the market, Rajman was a CD winner lto off only 2lbs lower looking value for at least that and CD figures of 1,1,8,3,2,2,3 so clear suited and tops plenty of my figures and Mr Mac is a CD winner who paid the price in the handicap for a decent run of form at the end of 2018 beginning of 2019 after wind surgery being raised a total of 14lbs, back down to last winning mark but the booking of Queally suggests connections want a few more llbs removed.
It was nice to get a decent priced winner yesterday but a shame the second horse was sent forward too early. I honestly did not expect to see her until the death, but thats racing and we must move on.
- 5:30 – I don’t generally back fillies this time of year but I did think Taste The Nectar looked slightly over-priced. With the 3 outside stalls likely to go forward she should be able to get a good lead in to the race then pounce late on the outside.
- 6:00 – A poorer race I doubt you will find so finding a runner you expect to run to form is difficult. CD winner on his penultimate start Rosarno would normally be a logical place to start unless you consider he only beat a 43 rated runner who was 7lbs wrong at the weights then struggled lto when back in to a handicap. Come On Bear looks the obvious one due to the fact she won an Apprentice race lto in which today’s jockeys was not allowed to claim over a similar trip at Wolverhampton but today she has been dropped 1lb for that win and the jockey can claim his full 7lbs allowance making her 8lbs well in racing in a weaker looking race. There is the obvious worry of the bounce as she was returning from almost 6 months off the track but I really think she will be tough to beat here. The British Lion will nick one of these soon but personally recent CD form figures of 2,2 are flattering as he was beaten 4 lengths each time.
- 6:30 – At current odds I have given Voice Of A Leader a chance, he finished in front of Roca Magic lto giving her 2lbs and they meet on level weights today. Dukes Meadow is well handicapped and may run well at decent odds.
- 8:00 – I did quite like Godolphin’s supposed third string here, Reflectionist. It is not often Charlie Appleby puts a hood on his racecourse debutantes but we should take note when he does as his strike rate is 47.62% with 13 of the 21 qualifiers either won or were placed and although Sea The Stars progeny may be better known for some of the other AW surfaces his progeny have a 31.71% strike rate over CD
- 8:30 – With a couple of runners from the Butler yard in here and one entered earlier the running and markets will be the best guide to this race. Temujin is interesting on first run for Mick Appleby as is the Frankel Gelding, Fronsac . Although I will not be playing until just before the off The one I will take a chance on providing no strong market indications elsewhere is Kilbaha Lady who has some of the best Speed Figures in the field and she did go close over CD in October off today’s mark.
An up and down day yesterday but the weather did’nt help.
- 4:00 Southwell – Amazing Amaya, went close lto over CD off this mark finishing a neck behind Final Legacy giving that rival 10lbs, recieves 2lbs today so 12lbs should see a reversal. CD winner in December off 46 has some decent CD speed figures, Jorvik Prince is in great form recently and clear recent Top Speed. Has won off higher marks so interesting on fibresand debut although pedigree does not scream fibresand. Piazon is My CD Top Rated and now 3lbs below last AW winning mark which was over CD off 3lbs higher and has won off 21lbs higher in the past. Has finished behind Red Stripes twice but has the beating of Final Legacy and Qaaraat. Red Stripes Struggled off this mark over CD on penultimate start. Warriors Valley is a 3 time CD winner, last 2 wins have come off 9 & 4lbs higher. Has a chance if mastering Red Stripes early and this drop in grade may help but all wins have come when well found in the market so let that be the guide. Red Invader is back down to a winnable mark now 3lbs below last winning mark which was over CD but has work to do on figures. If Warriors Valley can return to form then the market will more than likely indicate that but without that support I will take a chance on Piazon who will more than likely sit in just behind the early speed of Warriors Valley and Red Stripes.
- 6:00 Kempton – This to me revolves around Meghan Sparkle who’s trainer has a 20% strike rate with his first time handicappers but the one I like is Chloellie who is 7lbs below her last winning mark which was over this CD and looks primed for this return to CD after what look a series of handicapping runs. Her record at Kempton is strong with 12 runs, 5 wins and 4 placed efforts with 2 wins and 4 places off higher marks than today. She is 2 from 6 over CD having never failed to at least place, beating 84.375% of her rivals. David Probert takes back over in the saddle and he is 3 from 4 on this runner and 2 from 2 when taking over from another jockey.
A few races of interest today:
- 1:35 Chelmsford – Caso Do Lago for some reason I find this an intriguing runner. He was off the track for just over 4 year before joing this yard on a mark of 57, 4 runs on down to 45 after a series of fitness runs, first time blinkers here. Krazy Paving was a CD winner lto on first run after wind surgery under today’s jockey in what looked a tougher race than this so should go close and from an ideal draw looks the one to beat. Watheer with the likelihood of a strong gallop he should run a big race. Won a Maiden here back in 2017 beating runners now rated from 67-90. This only his second run over 6f and easiest run to date should go close and looks the one for the forecast. Poppy May is My CD Top Rated and looks tough to keep out of the places.. Twice a CD winner including in a similar race over CD last March carrying 9-8 but does need a strong gallop.
- 3:45 Chelmsford – Tone The Barone looks the obvious one but I am not sure I would have him so short as Green Door was worth more than short head he won by lto and he still appears to be well handicapped on old form.
- 5:20 Newcastle – Elusive Heights and Lady Alavesa look the obvious ones but are priced accordingly so I have played the RFC. I have also taken a small chance on Happy Face, by Kingman who’s progeny have appeared to do well here with 4 different winners from 14 runners at the track.
- 5:50 – 4 time CD winner Epeius who may be still a little high in the weights for win purposes may well run in to a place with a record of 12/20 either winning or placed over CD. He was placed over CD back in November off 74 finishing in front of Reckless Endeavour off 78, Epeius is 6lbs better off today so at 25/1 looks over-priced to me. Athollblair Boy looks far too high in the weights.Class dropper Glenamoy Lad is 2/3 over CD off 6lbs higher and 2lbs lower but let the market tell you the trainers intentions. Lady Of Aran has the speed figures if taking to the track. CD Top Rated Lucky Lodge is 13/20 win or placed over CD but never off a mark this high.
- 7:50 – 3 time CD winner and CD Top Rated, Choosen World looks another strong place market bet. 10 runs over CD have only seen him unplaced twice, today’s jockey is 2/3 but was placed on the other run. Etikaal looks dangerous but may now have reached his limit. One I like at massive odds is Dutch Pursuit who is having only his fourth run for connections but most interestingly returns to CD for the first time since winning a Novice Stakes beating a now 84 rated runner. Today may not be the day but at 50/1 it won’t cost me much to find out.
Nothing really catches my eye tonight but below are my thoughts:
- 4:35 – Looks a match up between the Godolphin pair with My preference for Distant Goddess but unless you are privy to yard information it’s a watch only race for me
- 5:05 – Mountain Brave reads well on my ratings and the trainer generally does well here with his first time handicapper so looks the value in the race to me
- 5:40 – With Double Kodiac now a non-runner Baby Steps and Glen Cocco look the obvious ones. Baby Steps has tried 7f on 4 occasions and failed to place so looks far too short for me although Jockey/Trainer have a great record together, CD winner Glen Cocco looks about the right price as he is now 1lb below his last AW winning mark and again the Jockey/Trainer have a great record on the AW and are 3/6 already this year but the one I have taken a chance with at the prices is My CD Top Rated, Robero who has something to prove at this level although he did win over CD off an officially 1lb higher mark back in December 2018 if we include the jockeys’s claim he is 1lb worse off here but he finished in front of Glen Coco over CD in November 2019 receiving 7lbs and he receives 11lbs today (including jockeys claim), plus prior to Robero’s CD win in 2018 he had previously won over 7f at Southwell on the back of a similarly quick turn around.
- 6:40 – Something I rarely say but I would if having a bet take a chance on the John Butler but bare in mind you are more punting on whether it is allowed to run to form not if it will, but IF he is allowed to run to his last CD form three runs back he wins simple as that for me but I would want to see market support first.
- 7:10 – Another no bet race for me but well handicapped Thawry looks the one to be on here.
- 7:40 – This looks between the two at the top of the market Felix and Kaser but if running to form Felix should be too good.
- 8:10 – I have taken another chance on a John Butler runner being allowed to run on merit. Superseded’s last win came over CD off an 11lbs higher mark have already won 3 starts before over CD off 59 on the back of similar lay offs.
A few selections for Friday, not all of them will be bets for me.
- 2:00 Southwell – Purely a stats based bet and a risky one at that. BUNGLE BILLY has been off the track for 471 days so will more than likely need the run but there are a few little snippets that make him worthy of an interest at 40/1. Firstly the fact that Cheek-pieces are applied for which the yard operate at around 29% on the AW and are 4/10 when applied to their runners here. The Jockey/Trainer are generally operating at 33.33% (7/21) +4.29WAX on the AW but narrowed down to Southwell they have teamed up on 6 occasions resulting in 4 wins and a place beating 84% of their rivals and +4.44WAX. Of all the AW tracks the yard do best here with a general 16.67% strike rate, they appear to be concentrating more here recently because from 2014 to the end of 2017 they failed to even have a runner placed from 14 runners at the track but from 2018 onwards they have had a similar amount of runners (16) resulting in 5 winners and another 4 placed, the main problem here is that all of those 5 winners were well found in the market returning no bigger than 8 BFSP. Sambucca Spirit does look strong but we won’t get rich backing such priced runners here.
- 4:35 Chelmsford – Rightly or wrongly I generally try to see if I can get a favourite beat and this is one occasion in which I believe I can. I have gone for two in this race at equally split stakes. Both are very well handicapped but whether they are simply on the downgrade remains to be seen. LACAN was last seen winning off a 31lbs higher mark over CD back in March 2018. He is MY CD Top Rated but obviously has issues judged on the breaks between racing, lto he looked to have been stopped quite blatantly and the interesting fact for me today is the first time eyeshields which the trainer tends to use sparingly yet very efficiently using them on one horse only so far on the AW with a 75% (3/4) strike rate. The second runner I feel may out run his odds is ARLECCHINO’S LEAP who again is very well handicapped, so if retaining a modicum of that ability will go close here and his last 3 speed figures suggest he still does. At odds of 12/1 and 25/1 I have split my stakes 50% win Lacan , 20% win 30% place ARLECCHINO’S LEAP
- 4:40 Southwell – No real punting interest but I did think Fieldsman looked strong here
- 5:10 Chelmsford – Not a betting race for me. Elusif is in fine form now allowed to run on merit and The British Lion will be allowed to win one of these types of races soon but I did think Tavener was interesting if allowed an easy lead.
- 6:15 Chelmsford – Again not a betting race but I did think Excellent George looked a little over-priced
- 7:15 Chelmsford – FANTASTIC FLYER looks the one to be on at the prices. Her last win came over CD back in September off just a 2lbs higher mark and today’s Jockey takes off 5lbs so is theoretically 3lbs well in and since the beginning of the year she has ridden 7 times for this yard winning on 2 and placed on a further 3.
- 7:45 Chelmsford – Chances can be given to the majority of the field here. Tarseekh should be able to get across from the wide draw. Spenny’s Lass, Compton Abbey and Krazy Paving are all well handicapped. Black Isle Boy has dropped from a mark of 72 since joining this yard and has gone close over CD off a mark of 80, IF the first time blinkers have a positive affect he will go close.
- 8:15 Chelmsford – I have no data here to support my selection purely visual examples of a runner getting readied for something GHOST BUY.
*unless stated my data is AW Only and from the start of 2018 onward
** Those in CAPITALS are the runners I have backed. Nothing today is worthy of a NAP or NB