Wolverhampton – Saturday

5:30 AW CHAMPIONSHIP FAST TRACK QUALIFIER 6f CLASS 2 CONDITIONS EVENT

PACE THOUGHTS
Stalls 3, 4 and 6 are the ones that have gone forward in the past. Mighty Gurkha has the quickest early sectional average of those having gone forward and with the second-time blinkers I would expect him to lead early. Yazaman from stall 1 and Victory Heights from stall 2 have the quickest early sectional averages of 12.15 and 12.17 sec/fur but those were achieved over a straight 6f.
INTERESTING STATS
• Zamaani should be suited by the surface most with the sire’s progeny having a 31.58% strike rate and a BF A/E of 1.75 at the track.
• Archie Watson has a 31%, Simon Crisford 20% and William Haggas 25.71% strike rate at this track (On Tapeta) with their juveniles. Although Marco Botti doesn’t appear in the top strike rates, he is the most profitable trainer to follow blindly from this race with a level stakes profit of £19 to a £1 stake and a BF A/E of 1.13. Archie Watson has a 1.44 BF A/E and a level stakes profit of £5.24 to a £1 stake.
• When narrowed down to Two-year old, Non-Handicaps only here on tapeta the picture changes slightly. Archie Watson remains the top on strike rates with 35%, but William Haggas moves to second with 30.5 % and Simon Crisford to third with a 21.62% strike rate. But yet again Marco Botti remains the most profitable even though he only operates at just over 13% he still returns a level stakes profit of £13.24 and a BF A/E of 1.23, Archie Watson has a 1.46 BF A/E and a level stakes profit of £8.44, William Haggas has also a BF A/E of 1.23 and a level stakes profit of £2.67. The rest would all return a loss if backed blind.


The one big issue with Marco Botti’s profitability is that he hasn’t been profitable to follow under the above conditions since the 2014 season!!!


So, narrowed down to recent years the two trainers to concentrate on stats-wise are Archie Watson and W Haggas. They have gone head to head 4 times here in Two-year old Non-Handicaps, Archie Watson has come out on top, winning 3 compared to Mr Haggas’s 1.


RACE THOUGHTS
This race in my opinion is full of gambles. On My Today Ratings I have Mighty Ghurka well clear but you have to be concerned by his reaction to the blinkers last time out and as the yard usually have a very positive strike rate when using the blinkers for the first time you are basically gambling on him being suited by them better second time. Archie Watson won this race last year and personally, I thought the market had the correct two runners at the top but neither offer much in the way of value. Yazaman is My Top Speed Rated and may well be the value in the race having raced prominently on his only AW start over the straight 6f at Newcastle. He finished a neck in front of Victory Heights on level terms and they meet on those terms again here but you are gambling that he is as effective going left-handed as all of his runs have been on a straight track. The progeny of Kodiac do generally improve on their moderate AW record when going left handed for the first time. The same can be said of Victory Heights who as also only ever run on straight tracks but his sire’s progeny do have a better overall record going left-handed on the AW but are only marginally better for the first time. Based on official rating Zamaani is at least 10lbs well in at the weights but again you are gambling at short odds on a runner that has only won on a straight track and has shown a tendency to find 1 or 2 just too good. Based purely on stats, speed and price I have had a small interest in Yazaman who does need to find 7lbs with Zamaani.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s