Tuesday – Wolverhampton

6:30 WOLVERHAMPTON 8½f CLASS 3 (0 to 90) HANDICAP

PACE THOUGHTS
Red Bond would be the obvious pace angle if we could be sure connections are running him on merit but coming from a this yard it is hard to be confident about his likely run style. If he does lead it will likely be at a steady gallop. The last time he raced over CD he set an early sectional average of 13 sec/fur and run on at a quick closing sectional of 11.53 sec/fur.
RACE THOUGHTS
Assimilation is the only AW winner beyond this level having won twice in Class 2 Company albeit both off 8st 8lbs and 8st 4lbs. He last raced over CD in March when winning a stronger Class 2 Handicap off a 2lbs lower mark when chasing the leaders. He only carried 8st 8lbs that day but carries 10st 1lb here. The last time he won carrying more than 9st was in a Class 5 Handicap in 2019. Red Bond is an intriguing runner having his second run after wind surgery. He returned last time out at Newcastle over 7f and was anchored in the rear, given a blatant non-trying ride by De Sousa having made all for all of his 3 AW victories all of which were over further including a CD win in a Novice Event from which the second has won twice and now rated 92 and the fourth has won 4 times and now rated 89. He is 8lbs above his last winning mark which was achieved over the straight mile at Newcastle in a Class 4 Handicap which he won by 8½l but has struggled since being stepped up in Class. The rest are unproven on the AW beyond Class 5. Red Bond has comfortably the best Speed Figures but Golden Force has the best recent over CD and would be a big danger if close enough to the speed in the home straight.

7.30 Wolverhampton 8½f CLASS 6 (0 to 55) HANDICAP
I have risked a very small stake on Deadly Accurate here from the Ian Williams yard. This trainer is very astute, his runner here has now started to look very well handicapped and I am sure there is a race of this type to by landed at some point if not today. He last won over a similar trip on turf in a Class 4 Handicap off a mark of 73, he is 0 from 11 on the AW but as is the weakness of this race he is Ranked second on My Speed Figures. The one thing I find interesting is the fact that this yard had adopted to run him in blinkers on all four of his starts for them and today they are swapped for the first time cheek-pieces. They are generally successful when using cheek-pieces for the first time with a 21.26% strike rate but this tactic of swapping another type of headgear for cheek-pieces has worked very well for the yard in the past with a 34.62% success rate and 11.89 WAX. This is a very speculative play but at 25/1 I thought it was worth an interest.

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