Saturday – Wolverhampton

4:00 5 Furlongs Class 4 (0 to 80) Handicap

PACE THOUGHTS
This looks a difficult race to gauge regarding run styles as there does look plenty of possible plots and scenarios. Stall 4 looks the best drawn of those possible early pace runners but Another Angel from stall 8 does have the quickest early speed figures, has often gone forward at Newcastle and may well be here to ensure a strong gallop for Mutabaahy but he has never led in 4 runs at the track. Charming Kid from stall 9 led last time out at Chelmsford but doesn’t appear to have the early speed figures to compete with stalls 4 and 8. The Charming Kid does have some quick closing sectional averages so could be dangerous if this becomes a tactical race.
RACE THOUGHTS
Mutabaahy would be my selection but not a very confident one, he looks the most likely to have the race run to suit and does have the strongest chance on the figures but may need luck in running from stall 2. He is 1 of 2 runners for A Brittain, he is My CD top Rated and has won 3 times over CD either racing in mid-division or tracking the speed. His last win came at Newcastle when restrained at the rear off a mark of 70 in a race that looked slightly stronger than this. He is still 3lbs above that winning mark but importantly 5 of his 6 career wins have come when returning from 10 days or less off the track and this is the first time this AW season, he has done that and his last win was preceded by a poor run over 6f. He is generally consistent on speed figures but is up against some potentially well handicapped rivals. Kick On Kick On has dropped 17lbs since joining this yard, Tanasoq is now 19lbs below his last winning mark, is having only his third run after wind surgery, has dropped to a very low mark and in to 0 to 80 Company for the time in over 2 years. The Daley Express CD win came off a mark of 85 and he races off a mark of 79 but he has had plenty of chances off similar marks recently.

6:00 7 Furlongs Class 6 (0 to 61) Handicap

PACE THOUGHTS
I really struggle to see what goes forward here with only Ten Chants proven from the front but his win at Leicester over a mile in June when making all is the only time he has been ridden forward. He has had one run for David Evans and looks likely to continue the handicapping process here. Leo Minor looks to have the quickest closing sectionals so may be suited best if the race is slowly run as expected
RACE THOUGHTS
Leo Davinci and Bobby Joe Leg look the ones to concentrate on judged on recent figures but offer little in the way of value. The two I have had a very small interest in are the Leo Minor and Thaki. Leo Minor has run some decent pace figures recently admittedly over shorter. The step up to 7f may look odd at first glance but for a runner campaigned predominantly over 5 and 6f. This is his fourth run after wind surgery and does look slightly more competitive than some of his recent races but being by War Front this step up to CD should suit and the although the sire’s progeny are infrequent runners over CD with only 8 different runners having had 1 run each producing 3 different winners and a further 2 different runners placed. The other runner I have chanced is the unexposed son of Lope De Vega who is a full brother to the 90 rated Aplomb. He makes his Handicap debut in a very weak race after competing in 2 competitive Novice Events. He has run the best recent Performance Figure and I just feel he may well be better than a mark of 57.

7:00 7 Furlongs Class 3 (0 to 95) Handicap

PACE THOUGHTS

Harrison Point from stall 5 looks the most obvious to go forward, stalls 2 and 4 have gone forward but over shorter so may be restrained. Stalls 7 and 8 look likely to sit in behind the early speed. Ghaith should have the tactical speed to sit close to the leader and has shown some really quick closing sectionals as has Hart Stopper who would be suited if this was slowly run but he has struggled beyond 6f recently.

RACE THOUGHTS

I would be quite happy to take on the Simcock runner at the prices as in My Opinion this looks between Ghaith and Harrisons Point. At the prices and with proven CD form I would just favour Ghaith but Harrisons does have some strong stats and may be able to control this from the front.

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