5:00 Class 2 Handicap (0 to 105) 7f
This looks a tricky little contest but one in which I do think the favourite is to short.
Of those proven to go forward Lincoln Park in stall 3 has just the quickest early speed sectional average but from stall 4, Huraiz who could well be here to ensure a decent gallop for Ghalyoon isn’t that far away. Firmament from stall 1 has run quicker early sectional averages when racing off the speed and along with Huraiz have the quickest CD final speed sectionals so should be suited if this becomes tactical. Intuitive is very interesting, he has some very quick closing sectional averages and along with Firmament generally runs above par closing sectional averages.
This to me revolves around the readiness of Intuitive who has been consistently quick with his AW speed figures, as have Mohareb and Firmament. Lincoln Park and Firmament are the only 2 runners proven in this Class but neither on the AW. Intuitive struggled badly, twice on turf in Meydan but the return to the AW hopefully should see him in better light as his AW form figures read 1,1,2,3,1,1 with a first, second and third at this track over 6f. He won last time out in the UK when stepped up to this trip for the first time. This is his first run for over 290 days, first in a visor, first wearing a tongue tie and first after wind surgery. He has since joined Simon Crisford after leaving James Tate for £190,000. Simon Crisford is 3 from 8 with a win/place record of 6 from 8 with his horses returning after wind surgery, wearing the tongue tie and from 100+ days break . Mohareb has raced on the AW 11 times, winning 3 and placed 4 times. He generally tracks the speed but did make all here over 6f and there is a line of form with Ghalyoon that makes me feel he could be slightly over-priced at 20/1. Intuitive looks the pick especially with the yard in such strong form, from their 19 runners they have had 8 winners and a further 5 places In the last 30 days but I have split my stake 60:40 with Mohareb has he did look drastically overpriced.