Two very tricky cards today and a day I won’t be getting too involved.
2:20 Southwell – Equidae was well fancied last time out and connections will no doubt be trying to recoup their losses but he did look extremely one paced here over 8 furlongs and I don’t think 7 furlongs is his trip. The one I have taken a chance with based mainly on stats is the David Simcock trained Al Thoorayah who on pedigree should be suited by the surface being by Arch who has sired a couple of “fibresand specialists” and his trainer has a 29.73% strike rate with his runners making their fibresand debut with these winners providing 79% (11) of his 14 winners at the track.
6:00 Chelmsford – This looks a very tight race that I could only narrow down to 6 runners. Venture is still a lightly raced 4yo who won a novice stakes over this trip at Kempton, drops back down in Class on course debut and has some decent figures to be competitive, Nick Vedder, is My Top Speed Rated and very well handicapped now 14lbs below his last winning mark but all of his AW wins have been at Newcastle and when well found in the market, Fen Breeze is a CD winner who possibly brings the strongest form in the race and interesting returned to CD with her winning form being boosted well, Swiss Pride, reads well on my recent ratings, CD second reads well in the context of this race with the 1st, 3rd and 5th all winning since, Excellent George is a three times CD winner all off much higher marks, latest CD second off 7lbs higher doesn’t read well and 16lbs worse off with Nick Vedder but dangerous with this possibly his time of year and Suzis Connoisseur is very well handicapped on some old form. My main worry for the race is the likely lack of speed with no confirmed front runners with Lalania and Fen Breeze the most likely to go forward with Excellent George possibly the best suited.