Fridays AW Selections

A few selections for Friday, not all of them will be bets for me.

  • 2:00 Southwell – Purely a stats based bet and a risky one at that. BUNGLE BILLY has been off the track for 471 days so will more than likely need the run but there are a few little snippets that make him worthy of an interest at 40/1. Firstly the fact that Cheek-pieces are applied for which the yard operate at around 29% on the AW and are 4/10 when applied to their runners here. The Jockey/Trainer are generally operating at 33.33% (7/21) +4.29WAX on the AW but narrowed down to Southwell they have teamed up on 6 occasions resulting in 4 wins and a place beating 84% of their rivals and +4.44WAX. Of all the AW tracks the yard do best here with a general 16.67% strike rate, they appear to be concentrating more here recently because from 2014 to the end of 2017 they failed to even have a runner placed from 14 runners at the track but from 2018 onwards they have had a similar amount of runners (16) resulting in 5 winners and another 4 placed, the main problem here is that all of those 5 winners were well found in the market returning no bigger than 8 BFSP. Sambucca Spirit does look strong but we won’t get rich backing such priced runners here.
  • 4:35 Chelmsford – Rightly or wrongly I generally try to see if I can get a favourite beat and this is one occasion in which I believe I can. I have gone for two in this race at equally split stakes. Both are very well handicapped but whether they are simply on the downgrade remains to be seen. LACAN was last seen winning off a 31lbs higher mark over CD back in March 2018. He is MY CD Top Rated but obviously has issues judged on the breaks between racing, lto he looked to have been stopped quite blatantly and the interesting fact for me today is the first time eyeshields which the trainer tends to use sparingly yet very efficiently using them on one horse only so far on the AW with a 75% (3/4) strike rate. The second runner I feel may out run his odds is ARLECCHINO’S LEAP who again is very well handicapped, so if retaining a modicum of that ability will go close here and his last 3 speed figures suggest he still does. At odds of 12/1 and 25/1 I have split my stakes 50% win Lacan , 20% win 30% place ARLECCHINO’S LEAP
  • 4:40 Southwell – No real punting interest but I did think Fieldsman looked strong here
  • 5:10 Chelmsford – Not a betting race for me. Elusif is in fine form now allowed to run on merit and The British Lion will be allowed to win one of these types of races soon but I did think Tavener was interesting if allowed an easy lead.
  • 6:15 Chelmsford – Again not a betting race but I did think Excellent George looked a little over-priced
  • 7:15 Chelmsford – FANTASTIC FLYER looks the one to be on at the prices. Her last win came over CD back in September off just a 2lbs higher mark and today’s Jockey takes off 5lbs so is theoretically 3lbs well in and since the beginning of the year she has ridden 7 times for this yard winning on 2 and placed on a further 3.
  • 7:45 Chelmsford – Chances can be given to the majority of the field here. Tarseekh should be able to get across from the wide draw. Spenny’s Lass, Compton Abbey and Krazy Paving are all well handicapped. Black Isle Boy has dropped from a mark of 72 since joining this yard and has gone close over CD off a mark of 80, IF the first time blinkers have a positive affect he will go close.
  • 8:15 Chelmsford – I have no data here to support my selection purely visual examples of a runner getting readied for something GHOST BUY.

*unless stated my data is AW Only and from the start of 2018 onward

** Those in CAPITALS are the runners I have backed. Nothing today is worthy of a NAP or NB

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