Friday’s Best Bet

I may be left with egg on my face but I really like one today.

3.15 Lingfield, Betway Handicap

Bustaan stands out to me and I am really surprised she was available at 4/1. Firstly if we look at the trainers record with his Handicap runners. Mr Burrows generally operates at around the 21% mark in all Handicaps, increasing to almost 26% with his runners in a Handicap for the first time, that number then increases again to an impressive 30/65% win/place with his runners on the AW making their Handicap debut, the most impressive of all is when we look at those Handicap debutantes after having had just the 3 qualifying runs as they make up all of his winners, with an outstanding record of 6 wins and 9 win/place from his 10 qualifying runners. Last year he had 5 qualifiers of which 4 won and the other placed. Now lets look at Bustaan herself, on the face of it there is nothing eye catching about her 3 runs to date, however if we look a little deeper in to her last run she finished third to a runner that has since run to a mark of 81, ok nothing still out of the ordinary apart from the fact she was giving the winner and the rest of the field 20lbs (10 lengths) and finished just 3 lengths behind the winner, so even if we discount the massive weight difference, a beating of 3 lengths (6lbs) by a horse rated 81 would see her rated 75 when actually she is rated 73 and in to an all age Handicap which sees her well in on that mark with some of her rivals. If we go back to the Lingfield run 13 days ago it looked like an ordinary Novice Stakes until we compare it with other races over the same CD on the same day. The race prior was a Fillies Handicap for 4yo+ which was won by a 69 rated runner in over 2 seconds slower with a winning time of 98.84 seconds, the race prior to that again was a a Class 2, 0-105 Handicap won by a 99 rated runner but was run just over 1 second slower with the winner running it in 97.82 seconds. The race in which Bustaan finished third in was won in a time of 96.8 seconds with Bustaan running it in 97.3 seconds still over 0.5 seconds faster than the 99 rated winner but carrying 6lbs more. I could be massively out here but I have Bustaan rated a very conservative 88 and therefore 4/1 looks massive value

Elsewhere on the cards

  • 12.30 Lingfield: At 16/1 I did quite like the look of Mr Bell’s runner here. He looks to have a nice profile and Mr Bell has a decent record with this type of profiled runner.

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