Kempton Park -16 September

Only two races that fulfill my race criteria tonight and unfortunately they look the two most complicated.

8.00 Kempton (14 runners) 32Red On The App Store Handicap (Div 1)
7f (1540 yards) Class 6, 3yo+
Avg OR : 52, Median OR : 52

With the likes of Mr Howling, Butler and co this looks like a race to definitely let the exchanges do the talking. Since 2016 and possibly well before the draw over 7 furlongs looks as important a factor as anything. From 48 races of 14 runners since January 2016 11 have been won by stall 1 giving us an Impact Value of just over 3. I have also found that runners who have a tendency to either lead or track the speed also do well which really points everything in the favour of Sea Shack who has the plum draw and is generally ridden from or just off the front. At first look you could be forgiven by being put off by his CD record of 4,6 and 2 but if you consider those runs were off marks of 76,80,77 and he runs off 51 tonight. He is My CD second Top Rated but taking a price of around 4/1 about a runner that has never won on any artificial surface from 21 attempts would not be for me but with the majority of the early pace pressure looking to be poorly drawn in stalls 10,12 and 14 this does look his best chance of changing that. There is a very well handicapped runner in here but I am not certain today is the day. Picket Line last won on the AW way back in April 2016 off a 16lbs higher mark but that was over 6 furlongs albeit at this track. He does have a single piece of CD form that would be of interest and that is his close third off a mark of 71 back in March 2017. He drops down to this 0-55 level for the first time ever and has placed on 4 of his 8 starts as top weight but a combination of Jockey, Trip and Headgear is a concern. If I was to play in this race a small investment in the 4 place market on Picket Line at around 5.8 would be my suggestion.

8.30 Kempton (13 runners) 32Red On The App Store Handicap (Div 2)
7f (1540 yards) Class 6, Standard To Slow, 3yo+
Avg OR : 51, Median OR : 52

Another race likely to be better predicted by the exchanges but another one with an interesting draw/pace angle. For some reason the bias is rather more spread out between stalls 1 to 6 in races with 13 runners. Tavener catches my eye with the defection of Tarseekh from stall 1 giving Tavener the inside berth. Master Poet in stall 8 now looks the main early pace pressure but if Tavener breaks on terms and is allowed to run his optimum race I believe Master Poet will have to do to on my pace ratings much to lead. The main worry I have with Tavener is this is only his third run for this stable and they may not be ready to let him loose plus the fact he has never run at this venue connections have the perfect excuse with the long run in either way so a market watch is definitely advised. Indian Affair is My CD Top Rated for his run back in October 2018. Prince Of Time is the runner that interests me as he is well handicapped, as run well over CD (My second Top Rated) and does generally run well carrying lesser weights against better runners. That said with a John Butler runner heading the market and runners from other connected stables it would not be a race to be getting overly involved in.

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