Wednesday – 3 April

As we move to the end of another AW season it is time once again for me to focus my attention on the Juveniles and Group Races on turf.

As far as today goes a very tricky day and not one in which I intend to be getting too involved in. Southwell can be left to those with the inside edge as usual but Kempton offers up a very interesting if not difficult card.

4.40 Kempton (9 runners)
100% Profit Boost At
EBF Fillies Novice Stakes (Plus 10)

A interesting Juvenile race to start off the card. The Archie Watson trained Lady Kermit has attracted plenty of support which is not surprising considering he sent out he generally operates at around a 25% strike rate on the AW with his two-year olds on debut and unleashed another yesterday. Lady Kermit also looks the type on paper A January foal by Starspangledbanner who himself won over 5 furlongs on debut going on to be a Group 1 winner from 6-8 furlongs but all on turf. His Juvenile progeny have a very moderate 2 from 25 strike rate on the AW which is a slight concern as is stall 10. Over 5 furlongs at Kempton there is a very short run to the first turn and although I am certain the trainer will have her well rehearsed Lady Kermit can not afford to lose much ground from the stalls. She does have a few later entries but at such a short price I am happy to take her on. The one I will take her on with is Perfect Rose, a February foal looks the best on pedigree in my opinion by Group 1 winning sprinter Oasis Dream and although she is most probably a longer term project as the Sire’s progeny generally improve for the run they have still shown a decent 14.67% strike rate on debut during April/May. The trainer can get them ready as we know and shows a 4 from 10 record with his Juvenile debutantes over CD.

7.15 Kempton (11 runners)
32Red Handicap
1m3f (2419 yards)
Class 4, Standard To Slow, 4yo+, Win: £6469

I have taken a rather speculative punt on Baydar here dropping from a 0-95 last time out back in to a more suitable 0-80 Handicap. He had decent form last year running against the likes of Watersmeet. The drop back in trip will also suit as all of his winning form apart from an AW Maiden win over 8 furlongs is on Turf over 10 furlongs. I am slightly worried that this is a cycle race to get him ready for a turf campaign but he his back to his lowest ever mark and fits a few trainer profiles in that he has a 22.86% strike rate in AW handicaps with his top weights having 2 or 3 seasonal runs a 50% (6 from 12) placed strike rate when also dropped in class so at 20/1 I thought was worth a small interest especially at around 3/1 for 4 places.

There does look to be some strong favourites on the card but a few I fancy that may outrun their odds are:

5.10 Kempton (Race 2) Red Skye Delight
5.45 Kempton (Race 3) Secret Magic
6.15 Kempton (Race 4) Balata Bay
6.15 Kempton (Race 4) Gold At Midnight
7.15 Kempton (Race 6) Baydar
8.15 Kempton (Race 8) Optima Petamus

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