The first day of the Turf Flat season but I will be concentrating on a decent AW card at Kempton.
RACE SUMMARY 14:05 Matchbook Magnolia Stakes (Listed)
PACE VERDICT : Matterhorn, Mootasadir and Big Country look the obvious Early Speed runners and may contest the early lead. A decent gallop looks likely which may suit a runner coming from off the speed
PACE SELECTION : Fabricate. Master Of The World or Extra Elusive
RACE SUMMARY : A fascinating renewal that is made even more interesting by the presence of last years winner Fabricate taking on multiple winner and clear CD Top Rated Matterhorn. From stall 1 Matterhorn is likely to try and make the running which looks likely considering his early speed rating over this CD last time out is clear of the field. I generally ignore Lingfield and Chelmsford form when studying for this track except over this trip and 5 furlongs as they are run on the similarly sharp inner track. This is a big step up in Class considering the average rating last time out was 10lbs lower than today’s race, in saying that he could not have been any more impressive. Mootasdir has the Form/Class to win this and is my Last Time Out Top Rated for his win in a decent handicap at Wolverhampton off 105 to make it 5 from 5 on the AW when returning from a break of 157 days. He looks versatile regarding run style and does have the early speed to stay in touch. The form of his Dundalk Group 3 win looks strong with the second going on to win a Listed Race next time. Master Of The World and Big Country had no chance in the Winter Derby finishing behind Wissahickon but the proximity to Pactolus suggests it is the percentage call to discount them here. Fabricate won this last year when returning from a similar break and can not truly be discounted but I just think he has a little to find with Matterhorn on My Ratings. Victory Bond looked like he was having a prep run last time out at Wolverhampton when intentionally run wide. The booking of Richard Kingscote stands out to me that connections are expecting more today as he has only ridden 10 times on the AW for this yard, winning 5 of them. He returns to 10 furlongs a trip at which his AW record reads 1,2,2,1 but unfortunately those seconds were at Listed Level. Extra Elusive is interesting one for me. He is 1 from 1 on the AW winning very impressively here over 12 furlongs and he looks certain to be suited by a decent gallop as I expect him to tuck in just behind the early speed. The trainer employs the hood for the first time which appears to be a strategy the trainer utilizes well especially with his runners returning from a break who return a 46.67% strike rate. The market does look to have this spot on especially with Matterhorn drawn in stall 1 and Mootasdir now drawn just on his outer so I expect him and Victory Bond to to be pushed forward to sit just behind the leader with Big Country the pace enigma as he may well be pushed along from stall 8 to take on the leader as he is the only runner with early speed ratings to match Matterhorn and it is this that I am gambling on as this in my opinion will suit Extra Elusive which is where my money is going.
SELECTION : Extra Elusive
DANGER : No early speed competition
Other Kempton Selections:
- 14:40 – Soldiers Minute/Pipers Note could out run his odds
- 15:15 – Count Calabash/Cosmeapolitan
- 16:25 – Uncle Jerry
- 17:00 – Archimento
- 16:10 – Bendy Spirit