Friday – 29th January

A fairly quiet week punting wise as we build up to the forthcoming Turf Flat season. Today’s card at Lingfield looks a cracker if not very tricky.

PACE VERDICT : In The Red May get an uncontested lead and be able to dictate the speed from the front
RACE SUMMARY : In The Red just failed over CD earlier this month in what looked a slightly tougher race than this. He showed enough early speed to get over from stall 7 that day and with very little obvious early speed competition should have no difficulty
doing the same here. He is only 1lb higher today but remains relatively well handicapped still on some past form. A danger may be the CD Top Rated Dark Alliance who won a shade easily over CD in January 2018 admittedly in a weaker race but off only 3lbs lower and has won recently off a 1lb higher mark albeit on Tapeta in a Claiming Race. The Warrior is lurking back on a decent mark but would be better suited with a slightly stronger gallop than he may get today. Bin Daahir is a very interesting runner based on pedigree and losing form. His last race has produced 9 winners and 25 placed efforts with 4 of the runners now rated 80+ with the second placed that day now rated 94, his penultimate race also looks very strong again producing 9 future winners with the winner that day now rated 106 finishing third in Group 1 Company. My main worry is the sire’s progeny have a poor record over this CD and he may be being prepared for the turf. Golden Guest is another runner that is becoming well handicapped having gone close over CD off 72(69 including jockey’s claim), he races off 67 (60 including jockey’s claim) today with the very capable C Fallon taking the ride. I just have a sneaky suspicion connections may want a few more pounds off his back but a market watch is recommended.
DANGER : Bin Daahir

PACE VERDICT : Warriors Valley, Captain Lars and Drakefell look the obvious Early Speed runners and may contest the early lead so a decent gallop looks likely which may suit a runner coming from off the speed.
RACE SUMMARY : Captain Lars and George Dryden are dangerously well handicapped with the latter possibly the most interesting if not for today. He is now 7lbs below his last win which was over CD back in February 2018. This is his second run after a wind operation so may just need this. The booking of Oisin Murphy for CD Top Rated Captain Lars catches the eye, he generally operates at a 25% strike rate for this yard and has 3 wins and another placed effort from 5 rides on this runner.
SELECTION : Captain Lars
DANGER : George Dryden

Lingfield other interests:

16:40 – Follow A Dream is a full sister to three Group Race winners including one at  Group 1 and four at Group 2 Level. She cost $625,000 as a Yearling and will need to win this and win it well to justify that fee.

Over at Newcastle there are a few I am interested in and have backed mainly in a few multiples.

17:55 – I have backed Up Ten Down Two who although not one for the mortgage at 8/1 I did think he was worth an interest. The ten-year old is 3 from 5 on Tapeta, 2 from 4 here including 1 over CD. He generally goes well after a decent break with a record of 3 from 4 on the back of a 90+ days break.

19:00 – Astonished looks a big price at 5/2 especially if you consider her sire’s 36 runners operate at a 44.44/63.89% Win/Place strike rate at the track and 10 from 6 over CD, 2 from 2 with his fillies.

19:30 – The form of Thaayer CD win last time out stands out here. He beat some decent rivals a shade cosily including the previous winner Matterhorn who has since won a further five races on the bounce and now rated 112. A further 5¼ lengths back in second was the John Gosden runner Holy Heart who has since won twice and finished second to become now rated 86. I am actually shocked and worried that Thaayer is available at odds against.

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