8:10 Wolverhampton (AW) 1m½f (1m142y) Fillies’ Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85)
An absolutely fascinating contest for one with so few runners.
Scottish Jig sets the standard on pedigree being a full sister to 115 Rated Group 1 winner albeit on turf. I am slightly worried about suitability to the surface for this runner especially at a short price as the Sire’s three-year old progeny are relatively lightly race on Tapeta since 2016 he has only produced 1 winner from 6 runners. Apart from a blip in 2017 when he was 0 from 6, J Gosden has been generally profitable to follow here with his three-year old fillies showing a 35.29% strike rate returning a level stakes profit of £11.81 although his favourites return a better strike rate of 45.45% they are not profitable to follow blind although they do just break in to profit when ridden by Rab Havlin who is 3 from 6.
Pride’s Gold is already proven here winning over 7 furlongs in June but the strength of that race has to be in doubt although she did win it very comfortably I would be surprised if there is not on in here to beat her. Simon Crisford has returned a level stakes profit with 5 winning fillies from the 22 he has sent here.
Allante is probably the most exposed of the field but is at least proven over CD although her pedigree looks strong on paper the form of her win is again in question beating mainly much inferior rivals. Sir Michael Stoute has appeared to start concentrating his three-year old fillies here, in 2015 and 2016 he sent 8 fillies to the track without a winner but in 2017 he sent 4 here producing 2 winners and this year so far he has sent 9 here resulting in 3 winners returning a strike rate of 38.46% resulting in a level stakes profit of £33.50.
Arabian Gift to me is the most interesting runner a 525,000 Guineas yearling by Dubawi whose three-year old fillies have a 55.56% (5 from 9) strike rate over CD but more interestingly are 4 from 7 when having their first run on Tapeta. This is Charlie Appleby’s only runner at the meeting and since 2014 he has operated at a 35.94% (23 from 64) strike rate when only sending one to the track and although not profitable to follow blind if you narrow them down to handicaps the strike rate increases to 40.74 % (11 from 27) and we just break in to profit. If we further narrow this down to the trainers only runner combined with the jockey’s only ride we suddenly end up with a 54.55% (12 from 22) strike rate returning a level stakes profit of £9.34. Brett Doyle is 1 from 1 under the following criteria. Arabian Gift has been strongly fancied on her two starts as a three-year old going off at 13/8 and 4/6 fav, she did finish a long way behind Scottish Jig but that was over a straight 8 furlongs but I really think the switch to Tapeta and a left-handed track will be right up her street so at a generally available 7/1 looks well worth an interest to me.