FRIDAY – EARLY PLAYS

6:30 YORK

CLASS WINNERS :B Fifty Two, Ninjago, Huntsmans Close and Toofi have the back class, Pennsylvania Dutch Run 7 Won 2 Placed 5 Win 29% Win/Place 71% at Class 4 level.

HIGHEST LTO PF :Dirchill (IRE)

SPEED TREND 1 :Hee Haw (IRE)

RATING :Tylery Wonder (IRE)

SPEED 1 :Meshardal (GER)

PACE VERDICT :It should suit a runner racing close to the speed Although some of these have shown Early Speed in the past none are guaranteed to go forward

PACE CONTENDERS :Dirchill and Round The Island have shown recent early speed.

RACE SUMMARY :A massively competitive race with several well handicapped runners, most notable are Huntsman Close 19lbs, Pomme De Terre 9lbs, Hee Haw and Meshardal both on 7lbs below their last winning mark. Pomme De Terre and Meshardal are the only two Course/Distance winners in the field whilst Tylery Wonder (5lbs below) has won at the track and over the trip but not combined. We have to go all the way back to 2015 for Huntsman’s Close last win but that was off a mark of 98 in a 0-108 Handicap. He is having only his fourth run for this yard and his last run looked no more than a freshener when set forward to lead. All four of his victories have been over a straight 6 furlongs, twice on good to firm ground although none of the here. Trainer D Griffiths has a decent 19.5% strike rate with his handicappers that he sends here and is 1 from 1 with those having their fourth run. Pomme De Terre could be in better form but he should appreciate the return to this track having only run here twice both times over CD, winning once off a 9lbs higher mark and finishing second off 10lbs higher. P Midgely runs four here with three of them very well handicapped and looking to hold a very strong chance, Tylery Wonder may be better over shorter but would be dangerous if afforded a comfortable time on the lead and P Makin has the best strike rate of the the four Jockeys riding for this yard but combined they only operate at a 4% strike rate with his runners here. Hee Haw arguably has the most scope for improvement and also has produced the best recent figures of the four and would appreciate any give in the ground. In such a competitive race I have split my stakes between high and low draws

SELECTION :Huntsman’s Close needs a leap of faith but if returning to anywhere near his best form for a Trainer who is a dab hand with these types of horses he has to be in with a shout at 50/1.

DANGER :Pomme De Terre with a watching eye on the weather towards Hee Haw


2:00 THIRSK

I have a tracker horse running here and one which I believe possesses a decent chance. Sosume run with great credit on his debut considering he was slowly away but showed a decent turn of foot staying on well at the end. K Burke’s juvenile runners tend to improve greatly for a run with his second time out juveniles generally operating at a 21.87% strike rate, 18.75% at this track. Today’s jockey Clifford Lee has an impressive 29.4% strike rate when riding the stables second time out juveniles. On my ratings the K Ryan runner Baldwin just shades it and as with K Burke the trainers juveniles generally progress with experience and his runners having their third start show a very healthy strike rate of 17.52% returning a level stakes profit of £47.45 in the last five years and are 3 from 12 at this track. More importantly to me is the fact that when going head to head with a single representative having between 1 and 2 starts K Ryan has won 6 of the 27 match ups compared to K Burke who has won 3. Both runners hold Group 2 Gymcrack entries and I believe Sosume to be a better prospect over further out of a Group 2 winning mare over 8 furlongs although his sire was speedy juvenile himself winning over 5 furlongs on debut but did go on win a Group 1 over 7 furlongs. Baldwin is by a Group 2 winning sire over 6 furlongs who also won his debut over 5 furlongs but his dam was only moderate. With the draw and run style massively in his favour Baldwin just edges for me but I will play Sosume in a forecast.

SELECTION :Baldwin just edges it for me at the prices

DANGER :Sosume would not need to improve much to take this

6:40 NEWMARKET

I have gone for one that I feel is hugely over-priced and is also My Top Rated. Dombra faced a difficult task last time out in a fiercely competitive Maiden with the first four places filled by runners from C Appleby by Dubawi costing 300,000 guineas, Saeed Bin Suroor by Dubawi, A P O’Brien by Scat Daddy costing $750,000 and John Gosden by Dutch Art. Dombra himself is by the mighty Frankel whose juvenile progeny are 2 from 2 in Nurseries so far and out of a Group 3 winning mare over 8 furlongs. Since 2014 Hugo Palmer has shown a decent 37.5% strike rate in Nurseries during the month of July and with the very impressive Jason Watson taking off a valuable 5lbs I am hoping Dombra can finally show his potential. Even Keel has decent form and will prefer this track but a string of seconds suggests connections have been trying and J Portman is 0 from 26 in Nurseries. Red Hut Red finished ½ length second last time out to a now 93 rated runner who had earlier finished second behind the impressive Calyx. Red Hut Red is trained by W Haggas who saddled 5 Nursery winners from 15 runners last year  all of which were from July onwards.

SELECTION :Dombra at 10/1edges it for me at the prices

DANGER : Red Hut Red at 22/1 could be worth an each way saver

2 thoughts on “FRIDAY – EARLY PLAYS

  1. Hi David , thank you for sharing your thoughts , selections etc .
    Only registered yesterday in the confirmation email I see links to ratings and stats blog posts but that’s protected.
    Are the ratings you compile a paid service ?
    Thanks

    Like

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