4:00 5 Furlongs Class 4 (0 to 80) Handicap
This looks a difficult race to gauge regarding run styles as there does look plenty of possible plots and scenarios. Stall 4 looks the best drawn of those possible early pace runners but Another Angel from stall 8 does have the quickest early speed figures, has often gone forward at Newcastle and may well be here to ensure a strong gallop for Mutabaahy but he has never led in 4 runs at the track. Charming Kid from stall 9 led last time out at Chelmsford but doesn’t appear to have the early speed figures to compete with stalls 4 and 8. The Charming Kid does have some quick closing sectional averages so could be dangerous if this becomes a tactical race.
Mutabaahy would be my selection but not a very confident one, he looks the most likely to have the race run to suit and does have the strongest chance on the figures but may need luck in running from stall 2. He is 1 of 2 runners for A Brittain, he is My CD top Rated and has won 3 times over CD either racing in mid-division or tracking the speed. His last win came at Newcastle when restrained at the rear off a mark of 70 in a race that looked slightly stronger than this. He is still 3lbs above that winning mark but importantly 5 of his 6 career wins have come when returning from 10 days or less off the track and this is the first time this AW season, he has done that and his last win was preceded by a poor run over 6f. He is generally consistent on speed figures but is up against some potentially well handicapped rivals. Kick On Kick On has dropped 17lbs since joining this yard, Tanasoq is now 19lbs below his last winning mark, is having only his third run after wind surgery, has dropped to a very low mark and in to 0 to 80 Company for the time in over 2 years. The Daley Express CD win came off a mark of 85 and he races off a mark of 79 but he has had plenty of chances off similar marks recently.
6:00 7 Furlongs Class 6 (0 to 61) Handicap
I really struggle to see what goes forward here with only Ten Chants proven from the front but his win at Leicester over a mile in June when making all is the only time he has been ridden forward. He has had one run for David Evans and looks likely to continue the handicapping process here. Leo Minor looks to have the quickest closing sectionals so may be suited best if the race is slowly run as expected
Leo Davinci and Bobby Joe Leg look the ones to concentrate on judged on recent figures but offer little in the way of value. The two I have had a very small interest in are the Leo Minor and Thaki. Leo Minor has run some decent pace figures recently admittedly over shorter. The step up to 7f may look odd at first glance but for a runner campaigned predominantly over 5 and 6f. This is his fourth run after wind surgery and does look slightly more competitive than some of his recent races but being by War Front this step up to CD should suit and the although the sire’s progeny are infrequent runners over CD with only 8 different runners having had 1 run each producing 3 different winners and a further 2 different runners placed. The other runner I have chanced is the unexposed son of Lope De Vega who is a full brother to the 90 rated Aplomb. He makes his Handicap debut in a very weak race after competing in 2 competitive Novice Events. He has run the best recent Performance Figure and I just feel he may well be better than a mark of 57.
7:00 7 Furlongs Class 3 (0 to 95) Handicap
Harrison Point from stall 5 looks the most obvious to go forward, stalls 2 and 4 have gone forward but over shorter so may be restrained. Stalls 7 and 8 look likely to sit in behind the early speed. Ghaith should have the tactical speed to sit close to the leader and has shown some really quick closing sectionals as has Hart Stopper who would be suited if this was slowly run but he has struggled beyond 6f recently.
I would be quite happy to take on the Simcock runner at the prices as in My Opinion this looks between Ghaith and Harrisons Point. At the prices and with proven CD form I would just favour Ghaith but Harrisons does have some strong stats and may be able to control this from the front.
The draw isn’t really that important over this CD with them starting from the chute. There does not appear to be a great deal of obvious early speed here, and what there is drawn wide. Full Intention from stall 13 does have the quicker early sectionals of the 2 that have gone forward regularly in the past but he raced in mid-division to win over CD from a similar draw (14 of 15). All things considered this looks likely to be a tactically run race which may well suit Martineo or Suzi’s Connoisseur the most.
If Enzo wins the 12:05 at Southwell I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or even both of the John Butler runners declared as non-runners. Inaam finished ½l in front of Martineo 20 days ago over 6f here and is 6lbs better off at the weights (8lbs if you take in to account jockey claim). Full Intention is proven over CD off this mark and also looks very consistent on speed figures. Frozen Water with blinkers fitted for the first time and Dear Power who has now dropped to her lowest ever mark and possibly more importantly drops in to 0-75 Company for the first time are the intriguing runners in the field. Maysong has produced some of the best recent speed figures but I am not 100% certain that this track will play to her strengths.
5:00 Class 2 Handicap (0 to 105) 7f
This looks a tricky little contest but one in which I do think the favourite is to short.
Of those proven to go forward Lincoln Park in stall 3 has just the quickest early speed sectional average but from stall 4, Huraiz who could well be here to ensure a decent gallop for Ghalyoon isn’t that far away. Firmament from stall 1 has run quicker early sectional averages when racing off the speed and along with Huraiz have the quickest CD final speed sectionals so should be suited if this becomes tactical. Intuitive is very interesting, he has some very quick closing sectional averages and along with Firmament generally runs above par closing sectional averages.
This to me revolves around the readiness of Intuitive who has been consistently quick with his AW speed figures, as have Mohareb and Firmament. Lincoln Park and Firmament are the only 2 runners proven in this Class but neither on the AW. Intuitive struggled badly, twice on turf in Meydan but the return to the AW hopefully should see him in better light as his AW form figures read 1,1,2,3,1,1 with a first, second and third at this track over 6f. He won last time out in the UK when stepped up to this trip for the first time. This is his first run for over 290 days, first in a visor, first wearing a tongue tie and first after wind surgery. He has since joined Simon Crisford after leaving James Tate for £190,000. Simon Crisford is 3 from 8 with a win/place record of 6 from 8 with his horses returning after wind surgery, wearing the tongue tie and from 100+ days break . Mohareb has raced on the AW 11 times, winning 3 and placed 4 times. He generally tracks the speed but did make all here over 6f and there is a line of form with Ghalyoon that makes me feel he could be slightly over-priced at 20/1. Intuitive looks the pick especially with the yard in such strong form, from their 19 runners they have had 8 winners and a further 5 places In the last 30 days but I have split my stake 60:40 with Mohareb has he did look drastically overpriced.
Two very tricky cards today and a day I won’t be getting too involved.
2:20 Southwell – Equidae was well fancied last time out and connections will no doubt be trying to recoup their losses but he did look extremely one paced here over 8 furlongs and I don’t think 7 furlongs is his trip. The one I have taken a chance with based mainly on stats is the David Simcock trained Al Thoorayah who on pedigree should be suited by the surface being by Arch who has sired a couple of “fibresand specialists” and his trainer has a 29.73% strike rate with his runners making their fibresand debut with these winners providing 79% (11) of his 14 winners at the track.
6:00 Chelmsford – This looks a very tight race that I could only narrow down to 6 runners. Venture is still a lightly raced 4yo who won a novice stakes over this trip at Kempton, drops back down in Class on course debut and has some decent figures to be competitive, Nick Vedder, is My Top Speed Rated and very well handicapped now 14lbs below his last winning mark but all of his AW wins have been at Newcastle and when well found in the market, Fen Breeze is a CD winner who possibly brings the strongest form in the race and interesting returned to CD with her winning form being boosted well, Swiss Pride, reads well on my recent ratings, CD second reads well in the context of this race with the 1st, 3rd and 5th all winning since, Excellent George is a three times CD winner all off much higher marks, latest CD second off 7lbs higher doesn’t read well and 16lbs worse off with Nick Vedder but dangerous with this possibly his time of year and Suzis Connoisseur is very well handicapped on some old form. My main worry for the race is the likely lack of speed with no confirmed front runners with Lalania and Fen Breeze the most likely to go forward with Excellent George possibly the best suited.
I am giving Lingfield a swerve going forward as I feel there is far too much skulduggery at the track.
5:30 Kempton – I have this between 3 runners, Ubla was an easy CD winner in January off 3lbs lower in a slightly easier race but the form has been boosted several times, Kyllachy Dragon has 1 win from 13 AW runs which is hardly inspiring but is clearly My Top rated and that win was off a 12lbs higher mark over this CD under today’s jockey but I am slightly worried by the quick return. The one I feel could be over-priced at 16/1 is Derry Boy who is having his second run since after wind surgery. He had earlier finished a nose second in CD Novice Stakes from which the winner has won since and although recent CD runs are uninspiring I feel the market may be worth watching in first time cheek-pieces into 0-60.
6:00 Kempton – It is tough to see where the pace is going to come from here. Penarth Pier, Fly The Nest and Recuerdame have all led but not guaranteed front runners. Kodiline has a poor record at the track albeit off much higher marks than this and does have the figures to be competitive, Penarth Pier a CD winner off 6lbs higher, was well backed lto over CD before being hampered and losing her chance. She does have the speed figures to win this but may be slightly high in the weights, Treble Clef is the one that interests me most andat 10/1 looked a little over-priced. He is definitely worth watching in the market on Handicap debut as he finished behind a short priced favourite lto when trapped wide from a poor draw and considerably ridden throughout surely better than 60 rated, Fly The Nest was interestingly ridden over CD on penultimate start. Was rated 82 around this time last year now 22lbs lower and Ben Curtis booked who is 6 from 16 for this yard with all winners well found in the market, Rajman was a CD winner lto off only 2lbs lower looking value for at least that and CD figures of 1,1,8,3,2,2,3 so clear suited and tops plenty of my figures and Mr Mac is a CD winner who paid the price in the handicap for a decent run of form at the end of 2018 beginning of 2019 after wind surgery being raised a total of 14lbs, back down to last winning mark but the booking of Queally suggests connections want a few more llbs removed.
It was nice to get a decent priced winner yesterday but a shame the second horse was sent forward too early. I honestly did not expect to see her until the death, but thats racing and we must move on.
- 5:30 – I don’t generally back fillies this time of year but I did think Taste The Nectar looked slightly over-priced. With the 3 outside stalls likely to go forward she should be able to get a good lead in to the race then pounce late on the outside.
- 6:00 – A poorer race I doubt you will find so finding a runner you expect to run to form is difficult. CD winner on his penultimate start Rosarno would normally be a logical place to start unless you consider he only beat a 43 rated runner who was 7lbs wrong at the weights then struggled lto when back in to a handicap. Come On Bear looks the obvious one due to the fact she won an Apprentice race lto in which today’s jockeys was not allowed to claim over a similar trip at Wolverhampton but today she has been dropped 1lb for that win and the jockey can claim his full 7lbs allowance making her 8lbs well in racing in a weaker looking race. There is the obvious worry of the bounce as she was returning from almost 6 months off the track but I really think she will be tough to beat here. The British Lion will nick one of these soon but personally recent CD form figures of 2,2 are flattering as he was beaten 4 lengths each time.
- 6:30 – At current odds I have given Voice Of A Leader a chance, he finished in front of Roca Magic lto giving her 2lbs and they meet on level weights today. Dukes Meadow is well handicapped and may run well at decent odds.
- 8:00 – I did quite like Godolphin’s supposed third string here, Reflectionist. It is not often Charlie Appleby puts a hood on his racecourse debutantes but we should take note when he does as his strike rate is 47.62% with 13 of the 21 qualifiers either won or were placed and although Sea The Stars progeny may be better known for some of the other AW surfaces his progeny have a 31.71% strike rate over CD
- 8:30 – With a couple of runners from the Butler yard in here and one entered earlier the running and markets will be the best guide to this race. Temujin is interesting on first run for Mick Appleby as is the Frankel Gelding, Fronsac . Although I will not be playing until just before the off The one I will take a chance on providing no strong market indications elsewhere is Kilbaha Lady who has some of the best Speed Figures in the field and she did go close over CD in October off today’s mark.
An up and down day yesterday but the weather did’nt help.
- 4:00 Southwell – Amazing Amaya, went close lto over CD off this mark finishing a neck behind Final Legacy giving that rival 10lbs, recieves 2lbs today so 12lbs should see a reversal. CD winner in December off 46 has some decent CD speed figures, Jorvik Prince is in great form recently and clear recent Top Speed. Has won off higher marks so interesting on fibresand debut although pedigree does not scream fibresand. Piazon is My CD Top Rated and now 3lbs below last AW winning mark which was over CD off 3lbs higher and has won off 21lbs higher in the past. Has finished behind Red Stripes twice but has the beating of Final Legacy and Qaaraat. Red Stripes Struggled off this mark over CD on penultimate start. Warriors Valley is a 3 time CD winner, last 2 wins have come off 9 & 4lbs higher. Has a chance if mastering Red Stripes early and this drop in grade may help but all wins have come when well found in the market so let that be the guide. Red Invader is back down to a winnable mark now 3lbs below last winning mark which was over CD but has work to do on figures. If Warriors Valley can return to form then the market will more than likely indicate that but without that support I will take a chance on Piazon who will more than likely sit in just behind the early speed of Warriors Valley and Red Stripes.
- 6:00 Kempton – This to me revolves around Meghan Sparkle who’s trainer has a 20% strike rate with his first time handicappers but the one I like is Chloellie who is 7lbs below her last winning mark which was over this CD and looks primed for this return to CD after what look a series of handicapping runs. Her record at Kempton is strong with 12 runs, 5 wins and 4 placed efforts with 2 wins and 4 places off higher marks than today. She is 2 from 6 over CD having never failed to at least place, beating 84.375% of her rivals. David Probert takes back over in the saddle and he is 3 from 4 on this runner and 2 from 2 when taking over from another jockey.